NQ data Part 3: UW control

Thanks all for your patience- yesterday's update was delayed whilst we got some important data!

As reported on Monday, a slight error in the Top 8 lists occurred. The missing decklist was the UW control list of Russ Davies. We presented Rob Davies' list in error- sorry for the confusion! The correct, qualifying list:

4 Tectonic Edge
4 Plains
3 Island
3 Terramorphic Expanse
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Halimar Depths
4 Tectonic Edge
4 Everflowing Chalice

1 Path to Exile
1 Journey To Nowhere
2 Negate
4 Treasure Hunt
3 Spreading Seas
3 Oblivion Ring
2 Cancel
3 Jace, the Mindsculptor
2 Day of Judgment
3 Baneslayer Angel
2 Mind Spring
3 Martial Coup
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria


Sideboard:
4 Celestial Purge
3 Flashfreeze
1 Pithing Needle
2 Mind Control
1 Deft Duellist
2 Kor Firewalker
1 Kiss of the Amesha
1 Marshals Anthem

Let's look at the matchups for this deck.

Overall, UW did very, very well. It had an overall record of 25-15-2, winning almost 60% of its matches. Its record was also consistent with the die roll- it went 12-7-2 on the play, and 13-8 on the draw.

In specific matchups, it wasn't all the same story. Just to recap Tuesday, against Burn, UW went 5-4, with 5-1 on the play and 0-3 on the draw.

Against Jund, the boogieman of the format, UW scored 5-3-1. On the play, that was a 2-2 split; on the draw, Jund's aggressive discard saw it slip to 1-3-1.

The mirror looked to be a real skill-tester, although in our tournament we had only 4 such matches. They went evenly, 2-2, depending on the die roll.

Finally, against the Naya decks, UW found itself at 5-1. It was a stonking 4-0 on the draw against this deck, and split games on the play 1-1.

Join us tomorrow when the Naya and Jund stats are revised and revealed.

Til then,

~David

(incidentally, if you want to know more about this project, the podcast, or anything else related, the address to email is savia dot wanderer at gmail dot com!)

NQ data Part 2: Burn

Ok, let's Burn.

This category includes a few noticeably separate variations, but they are all very similar and hence grouped together for the purposes of this analysis.

These decks almost all play Lightning Bolt, Burst Lightning, Goblin Guide, and Ball-Lightning. The majority splash black for Blightning and friends, but some are pure red.

A well-performing variant also picked up white, for Ajani Vengeant and Refraction Trap.

These decks are very, very aggressive. Let's see how that translates into success for the 9 players that took it to our event.

Overall, the deck went 31-23, winning a respectable 57% of its matches. Predictably enough, it didn't draw once.

That record is hugely skewed based on the die roll. On the draw, the deck went a pretty average 13-14. On the play, it took matches at a rate of 18-9. How's that for speed?

MATCHUPS

In our event, Burn only faced off against the ubiquitous Jund. The score was 5-4 in Burn's favour, but again the die roll was a big factor. On the play, Burn achieved a score of 4-1. On the draw, it got only 1-3.

This skew was carried on to the UW matchup, where a 1-5 record on the draw contrasted with a 3-0 on the play.

Naya, another popular deck, had a more even result: 5-2 on the play, and 3-2 when burn was on the draw.

Sadly, we only had 2 Burn mirrors, not enough data to draw anything interesting from. The matches were split evenly between the play and the draw- but with more data as the season rolls on, we'll see if that continues.

From the fastest deck in the format, to one of the slowest. Come by tomorrow for all the data on UW control.

Statistics from NQ Reading Part 1: General data

Hi all.

In the first installment of statistical data from this tournament, some generic information about the event.

In total, we had 7 rounds of play. 184 matches were completed and entered into our data pool, and that's what's getting presented here.

I.D.s and matches won by a non-present opponent weren't included.

First of all, let's look at the path to victory. Here's what each qualifying player faced on their way to the slot:

Aaron Cadwallader (playing UW control, won 2 die rolls out of 7):

UW control, won

Naya, won

UW control, won

Burn, lost

Naya, lost

Vampires, won

Naya, won

Kris Pietron (playing Jund, won 5 die rolls out of 6):

Burn, won

UW control, lost

Jund, won

Elves!, won

Jund, won

Naya, won

I.D.

Arun Banghar (playing Burn, won 3 die rolls out of 6):

UW control, lost

Jund, won

Vampires, won

Open the Vaults, won

Naya, won

Naya, won

I.D.

Gary Lynch (playing Jund, won 2 die rolls out of 6):

Boros, won

GW junk, won

Elves!, won

UW control, won

I.D.

UW control, won

UW control, lost

James Mills (playing UW control, won 4 out of 6 die rolls):

Naya, won

Open the Vaults, won

Jund, won

Jund, won

White Weenie, won

Jund, lost

I.D.

Dominic Penton (playing Jund, won 4 out of 7 die rolls):

UW control, won

Jund, won

Mythic, won

UW control, lost

Jund, won

Naya, won

Jund, won

Steve Bains (playing Burn, won 4 out of 7 die rolls):

Jund, won

Elves!, lost

GW junk, won

Jund, won

UW control, won

Burn, won

UW control, won

Now, some more stats for you.

Out of those 184 matches played, 5 were natural draws.

The remaining 179 matches were split 93-86 in favour of the draw. That's right, the player on the draw won around 53% of the time.

Now, a quick statistics lesson- with this size of sample, that result isn't what's termed statistically significant. That is, you can't draw a conclusion like "drawing is better", because there's not enough of a skew and not enough data to support that. But, it is excellent evidence that, on the whole, the die roll is not a major factor in the current Worldwake Standard metagame.

But what about specific matchups? Which decks win more, and which care more about that die roll?

Join us tomorrow, when we talk about Burn.

Nationals Qualifier, March 21st

Hi all!

This event was a special one.

We had 68 players competing for 8 slots over 7 rounds of Swiss play. As always, the top lists will follow.

What is different about this is that, thanks to all the players contributing a record of who won or lost the die roll, and a thorough metagame breakdown, we have a lot of extra information about this event!

We're going to start with just the meta breakdown and the qualifying lists. Then, each day this week, we'll update with some more statistics on the tournament.

So, without further ado:

METAGAME BREAKDOWN

Jund 15

Naya 10

UW control 10

Burn 9

Elves! 4

White Weenie 4

Open the Vaults 3

Mythic 2

Vampires 2

Allies 1

Boros 1

Goblins 1

GW control 1

GW Junk 1

Mill 1

Monowhite control 1

TurboFog 1

Valakut 1

The Top 8 looked like this (in no particular order):

Steve Bains

4 Burst Lightning

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Searing Blaze

4 Blightning

1 Banefire

3 Earthquake

/20 spells

4 Hellspark Elemental

4 Goblin Guide

4 Hell’s Thunder

4 Ball-Lightning

/16 creatures

4 Arid Mesa

4 Lavaclaw Reaches

4 Dragonskull Summit

4 Scalding Tarn

7 Mountain

1 Swamp

/24 lands

//60 cards

SB:

4 Goblin Ruinblaster

2 Doom Blade

3 Dragon’s Claw

4 Deathmark

2 Slave of Bolas

Dominic Pietron’s “Jund”

4 Putrid Leech

4 Bloodbraid Elf

4 Sprouting Thrinax

2 Broodmate Dragon

2 Master of the Wild Hunt

/16 creatures

4 Blightning

4 Lightning Bolt

3 Maelstrom Pulse

3 Bituminous Blast

2 Garruk Wildspeaker

2 Terminate

1 Burst Lightning

/19 spells

4 Savage Lands

4 Verdant Catacombs

3 Dragonskull Summit

2 Raging Ravine

2 Rootbound Crag

2 Oran-Rief, the Vastwood

3 Mountain

3 Swamp

2 Forest

/25 lands

//60 cards

SB:

3 Doom Blade

3 Goblin Ruinblaster

3 Jund Charm

2 Thought Hemorrhage

1 Maelstrom Pulse

3 Malakir Bloodwitch

Updated 23rd March: Sorry, but due to human error, Rob Davies' White Weenie deck was listed as qualifying instead of Russ Davies.

Correct decklist to follow ASAP. Mea culpa.

Rob Davies’ “Plan Z”

3 Kor Duelist

2 Kor Skyfisher

4 White Knight

4 Kor Firewalker

2 Stoneforge Mystic

3 Knight of the White Orchid

2 Devout Lightcaster

2 Emeria Angel

/22 creatures

1 Basilisk Collar

1 Hammer of Ruin

1 Sigil of Distinction

3 Path to Exile

2 Brave the Elements

2 Oblivion Ring

2 Elspeth, Knight-Errant

2 Ajani Goldmane

2 Day of Judgment

/16 spells

13 Plains

3 Dread Statuary

2 Emeria, the Sky Ruin

2 Arid Mesa

2 Marsh Flats

/22 lands

//60 cards

SB:

1 Path to Exile

3 Relic of Progenitus

1 Brave the Elements

3 Celestial Purge

2 Devout Lightcaster

1 Oblivion Ring

3 Scepter of Dominance

1 Day of Judgment

Gary Lynch

4 Bloodbraid Elf

2 Broodmate Dragon

4 Putrid Leech

4 Sprouting Thrinax

1 Borderland Ranger

2 Siege-Gang Commander

/17 creatures

2 Terminate

4 Blightning

3 Bituminous Blast

4 Maelstrom Pulse

4 Lightning Bolt

/17 spells

4 Verdant Catacombs

4 Savage Lands

4 Raging Ravine

1 Rootbound Crag

3 Swamp

3 Mountain

3 Forest

1 Lavaclaw Reaches

3 Dragonskull Summit

/26 lands

//60 cards

SB:

1 Basilisk Collar

3 Malakir Bloodwitch

4 Goblin Ruinblaster

4 Deathmark

1 Mind Rot

2 Duress

James Mills’ “Dan Barrett is the best friend ever!”

4 Baneslayer Angel

2 Iona, Shield of Emeria

3 Knight of the White Orchid

/9 creatures

4 Mind Spring

4 Martial Coup

2 Divination

2 Treasure Hunt

3 Path to Exile

3 Day of Judgment

3 Oblivion Ring

4 Everflowing Chalice

3 Fieldmist Borderpost

/28 spells

4 Celestial Colonnade

4 Glacial Fortress

6 Island

8 Plains

1 Tectonic Edge

/23 lands

//60 cards

SB:

1 Kor Firewalker

2 Celestial Purge

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

3 Negate

3 Flashfreeze

1 Marshal’s Anthem

2 Mind Control

1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant

Arun Banghar’s “RDW”

4 Goblin Guide

4 Plated Geopede

4 Hell’s Thunder

4 Ball-Lightning

4 Hellspark Elemental

/20 creatures

4 Burst Lightning

4 Searing Blaze

4 Lightning Bolt

3 Earthquake

/15 spells

4 Scalding Tarn

4 Arid Mesa

3 Teetering Peaks

1 Terramorphic Expanse

13 Mountain

/25 lands

//60 cards

SB:

3 Rakka Mar

3 Unstable Footing

4 Journey to Nowhere

1 Plains

4 Chandra Nalaar

Kris Pietron

4 Bloodbraid Elf

2 Broodmate Dragon

4 Putrid Leech

3 Siege-Gang Commander

4 Sprouting Thrinax

/17 creatures

4 Blightning

2 Garruk Wildspeaker

4 Lightning Bolt

3 Maelstrom Pulse

2 Rampant Growth

2 Terminate

/17 spells

3 Dragonskull Summit

3 Forest

1 Lavaclaw Reaches

3 Mountain

4 Raging Ravine

1 Rootbound Crag

4 Savage Lands

3 Swamp

4 Verdant Catacombs

/26 lands

//60 cards

SB:

4 Goblin Ruinblaster

1 Terminate

2 Master of the Wild Hunt

3 Deathmark

2 Malakir Bloodwitch

3 Great Sable Stag

Aaron Cadwallader’s “Bunch of Jaces”

1 Iona, Shield of Emeria

/1 creature

4 Everflowing Chalice

2 Oblivion Ring

1 Essence Scatter

2 Flashfreeze

2 Negate

3 Path to Exile

4 Cancel

4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

2 Mind Spring

2 Martial Coup

3 Day of Judgment

4 Treasure Hunt

/33 spells

1 Scalding Tarn

2 Marsh Flats

3 Island

4 Tectonic Edge

4 Celestial Colonnade

4 Halimar Depths

4 Glacial Fortress

4 Plains

/26 lands

//60 cards

SB:

1 Essence Scatter

1 Luminarch Ascension

1 Negate

1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant

1 Plains

2 Celestial Purge

3 Kor Firewalker

2 Flashfreeze

3 Baneslayer Angel

Come back Monday for the first of our statistics!