Monday 22 March 2010

Statistics from NQ Reading Part 1: General data

Hi all.

In the first installment of statistical data from this tournament, some generic information about the event.

In total, we had 7 rounds of play. 184 matches were completed and entered into our data pool, and that's what's getting presented here.

I.D.s and matches won by a non-present opponent weren't included.

First of all, let's look at the path to victory. Here's what each qualifying player faced on their way to the slot:

Aaron Cadwallader (playing UW control, won 2 die rolls out of 7):
UW control, won
Naya, won
UW control, won
Burn, lost
Naya, lost
Vampires, won
Naya, won

Kris Pietron (playing Jund, won 5 die rolls out of 6):
Burn, won
UW control, lost
Jund, won
Elves!, won
Jund, won
Naya, won
I.D.

Arun Banghar (playing Burn, won 3 die rolls out of 6):
UW control, lost
Jund, won
Vampires, won
Open the Vaults, won
Naya, won
Naya, won
I.D.

Gary Lynch (playing Jund, won 2 die rolls out of 6):
Boros, won
GW junk, won
Elves!, won
UW control, won
I.D.
UW control, won
UW control, lost

James Mills (playing UW control, won 4 out of 6 die rolls):
Naya, won
Open the Vaults, won
Jund, won
Jund, won
White Weenie, won
Jund, lost
I.D.

Dominic Penton (playing Jund, won 4 out of 7 die rolls):
UW control, won
Jund, won
Mythic, won
UW control, lost
Jund, won
Naya, won
Jund, won

Steve Bains (playing Burn, won 4 out of 7 die rolls):
Jund, won
Elves!, lost
GW junk, won
Jund, won
UW control, won
Burn, won
UW control, won

Now, some more stats for you.

Out of those 184 matches played, 5 were natural draws.

The remaining 179 matches were split 93-86 in favour of the draw. That's right, the player on the draw won around 53% of the time.

Now, a quick statistics lesson- with this size of sample, that result isn't what's termed statistically significant. That is, you can't draw a conclusion like "drawing is better", because there's not enough of a skew and not enough data to support that. But, it is excellent evidence that, on the whole, the die roll is not a major factor in the current Worldwake Standard metagame.

But what about specific matchups? Which decks win more, and which care more about that die roll?

Join us tomorrow, when we talk about Burn.

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